How to Catch a Black Swan? Why Only Some Predictions Come True, and Rarely
19.99 €
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How to Catch a Black Swan? Why Only Some Predictions Come True, and Rarely
19.99 €
Most forecasts in economics, politics, emergencies, and other areas fail because they misjudge probabilities in the face of uncertainty. We often mistake more confident forecasts for more accurate ones, and overconfidence often backfires. Only by better understanding randomness and uncertainty can we make more accurate forecasts.
Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, uses his innovative system for predicting sports and political outcomes to show how to extract the true signal from the mass of extraneous data — the information “noise.” Silver examines the most accurate forecasts in a variety of areas: from natural disasters to pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from global warming to sports. He analyzes how the most successful forecasters think and what they have in common. What makes them so successful? Are they better savvy or just lucky? What patterns do they uncover? And are their forecasts really correct? Silver notes that the authors of the best forecasts are excellent at using probabilistic tools. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable and notice many small details that bring them closer to the truth. Thanks to the correct assessment of probabilities, they can distinguish signal from noise. Nate Silver's book, in many ways consonant with the ideas of Nassim Taleb, helps to meet "black swans" with dignity and is equally important for anyone who deals with big data and calculates possible developments.
Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, uses his innovative system for predicting sports and political outcomes to show how to extract the true signal from the mass of extraneous data — the information “noise.” Silver examines the most accurate forecasts in a variety of areas: from natural disasters to pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from global warming to sports. He analyzes how the most successful forecasters think and what they have in common. What makes them so successful? Are they better savvy or just lucky? What patterns do they uncover? And are their forecasts really correct? Silver notes that the authors of the best forecasts are excellent at using probabilistic tools. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable and notice many small details that bring them closer to the truth. Thanks to the correct assessment of probabilities, they can distinguish signal from noise. Nate Silver's book, in many ways consonant with the ideas of Nassim Taleb, helps to meet "black swans" with dignity and is equally important for anyone who deals with big data and calculates possible developments.
See also:
- All books by the publisher
- All books by the author
- All books in the series Thinking Man. Ideas