How to Catch a Black Swan? Why Only Some Predictions Come True, and Rarely
19.99 €
In stock
How to Catch a Black Swan? Why Only Some Predictions Come True, and Rarely
19.99 €
Most forecasts in economics, politics, emergencies, and other areas fail because we misjudge probabilities in the face of uncertainty. We often mistake more confident forecasts for more accurate ones, and overconfidence turns into a fiasco. Only by deepening our understanding of randomness and uncertainty can we make our predictions closer to the truth. Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of the website FiveThirtyEight, draws on his innovative system for predicting outcomes in sports and politics to show how to extract the true signal from the mass of incidental data - the information "noise." Silver examines the most accurate predictions in a wide variety of fields, from natural disasters to pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from global warming to sports. He analyzes how the most successful forecasters think and what they have in common. What is the reason for their success? Are they more savvy than others - or are they just lucky? What patterns do they uncover? And are their predictions really correct? Silver notes that the authors of the best forecasts excel with probabilistic tools. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable and notice many small details that bring them closer to the truth. By correctly assessing probabilities, they can distinguish signal from noise. Nate Silver's book, which in many ways echoes the ideas of Nassim Taleb, helps to meet the "black swans" with dignity and is equally important for all those who deal with big data and calculate the options of events.
See also:
- All books by the publisher
- All books by the author
- All books in the series Man Thinking. Ideas