signal and noise. Why do some predictions come true and others don't?

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We believe that our world is largely logical and predictable, and therefore we make forecasts, calculate the probability of earthquakes, epidemics, economic crises, try to guess the results of trading on the stock exchange and sports matches. In this vast ocean of data, it is important to be able to correctly recognize the real signal and not be distracted by useless information noise. Nate Silver, a political visionary and statistics guru who developed a forecasting system that made it possible to accurately predict the results of presidential elections twice in almost all states of America, tells how to learn this. His book is in many ways close to the research of Nassim Taleb and is just as significant for everyone who deals with large amounts of data and calculates various scenarios. And if Taleb talks about the laws of the origin of "black swans", Silver explores the models and methods that allow us to catch these birds in the nets we have placed. It summarizes the experience of expert practitioners, studies various models and approaches that allow making more accurate forecasts. Like Daniel Kahneman, author of the best-selling book Think Slowly... Decide Fast, by observing the behavior and thinking of people evaluating uncertain events, Silver argues that yes, computers are indispensable when working with huge amounts of data, but for maximum accuracy of results, a flexible human mind and experience, because forecasting is planning under conditions of uncertainty.

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Barcode: 9785389164055 SKU: 70086263 Category:
Publication language: Russian

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